China and the Middle East

So, just to review:

1) China is cozying up to a powerful country on the periphery of the Middle East;

2) Because of its religion and periodically bellicose foreign policy, that country is viewed as an outsider by the Arab Middle East;

3) This country is pursuing internal security policies that would generously be described as “controversial” by the rest of the world;

4) It’s Middle East policy can have pronounced effects on China’s own domestic politics;

5) All the while, Chinese energy dependence on the region is increasing rapidly.

Welcome to the Middle East, China!!

This is a superficial analysis of a possibly very serious problem. I’ll explain.

The Arabs know that the Iranian nukes are aimed at them as well as the US. If Iran obtains nukes, which at this point seems like a forgone conclusion.. several things may happen. The Arab countries may feel threatened enough to start acquiring their own nuclear capabilities. Israel may bomb the Iranian facilities and they probably will enlist the help or permission of many Arabs states in doing so. The worst case scenario is Iran using a nuke in a terrorist strike against a Middle Eastern or Western country.

Just so we are clear… the players are Iran (an Islamic terrorist dictatorship), the US (worlds most powerful military), Israel (sees their existence threatened by Iranian nukes), and many Arab countries that rightly fear an expansionist Iran. This is the mess that China is getting involved in. Based on my China studies, I’d say China involved itself with Iran mostly for oil resources and as a wedge to prevent economic sanctions against Iran from working thus thwarting US efforts in the Middle East. This is in line with their strategy outlined in “Unrestricted Warfare”. As you can see from the information above, strategy almost always looks good on paper but implementation requires constant revisions and supervision. In 2012, there is a distinct possibility that the American people may elect a hardline conservative President. This will put China’s support of Iran’s nuclear ambitions under the spotlight of a hardline US President and an American public that fully supports him (except for the MSM and the 5th Column types). Would China in return become more hardline? History says probably so. A military and economic show down between China and the US while the Middle East struggles to contain Iran would set off many destabilizing events. What if we go to war with Iran to take their nukes from them? There are too many second and third order effects to mention here but you get the jist of where this is going.

It would seem that China is making a strategic blunder at this point. Perhaps their rapid success in Africa has caused them to over-reach a bit.

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